In a bold prediction about the future of work, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates says artificial intelligence will eliminate the need for humans in most jobs within the next ten years. During a recent appearance on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon, Gates emphasized that while expertise is still valuable today, that’s about to change rapidly. This contradicts IBM CEO’s opinion on AI takeover of the programming industry.
“Right now, having a great doctor or a great teacher is rare,” Gates explained. “But with AI, those things will become free and common — great medical advice, great tutoring.” This shift, he believes, marks the beginning of a new era he calls free intelligence, one where powerful AI tools will be accessible to everyone and embedded into daily life.
From diagnosing diseases to offering personalized education, AI-powered tools are evolving fast. In an earlier conversation with Harvard professor Arthur Brooks, Gates described the pace of change as “profound and even a little bit scary” because there appears to be “no upper bound” to AI’s capabilities.
AI’s Rise: Transforming Roles or Replacing Them Entirely?
Gates’ forecast feeds into a larger debate: Will AI replace humans entirely or simply make them more efficient? While some experts argue that AI will complement workers and create new jobs, others believe the changes could be far more disruptive.
Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, warns that technological advancements are not just enhancing labor — they’re replacing it. In his 2023 book The Coming Wave, Suleyman wrote that although AI will unlock enormous economic growth, it will fundamentally change how jobs look in nearly every industry and cause widespread upheaval in the workforce.
AI Could Replace, But Not Erase, All Human Roles
Despite the disruption ahead, Gates maintains a largely optimistic view of AI’s potential. He sees it as a tool for solving some of humanity’s biggest challenges — from developing cures for deadly diseases to fighting climate change and improving education worldwide.
Still, he acknowledges that not everything should be handed over to machines. “There are some things we’ll always want to keep for ourselves,” he said to Fallon. For example, people are unlikely to ever want robots playing sports like baseball. But when it comes to production, transportation, or agriculture, Gates believes these tasks will eventually be “solved problems.”
From Hype to Reality: The Dual Nature of AI’s Future
Although Gates champions the promise of AI, he’s not blind to the risks. In a 2023 blog post, he admitted that current AI systems are still riddled with errors and can unintentionally spread misinformation. These concerns, he said, are both “understandable and valid.”
Yet, if he were to start a new venture today, Gates wouldn’t hesitate to build it around AI. Speaking to CNBC Make It in September 2024, he noted that it’s easier than ever to attract funding for AI startups — even those based on early-stage concepts. “Somebody could raise billions of dollars with just a few sketch ideas,” he said.
He’s also urging young innovators at Microsoft, OpenAI, and elsewhere to dive in. “This is your fantastic opportunity,” Gates said, encouraging the next generation to explore AI’s vast potential with fresh perspectives.
Gates Has Been Betting on AI for Years
This isn’t a sudden shift in thinking for Gates. Back in 2017, during a talk at Columbia University with Warren Buffett, he revealed that if he had to start his career over, artificial intelligence would be his top focus. At the time, AI had already achieved remarkable feats, like DeepMind’s AlphaGo beating top human players in the game Go — a milestone that caught Gates’ attention.
Still, the speed at which AI evolved exceeded even his expectations. In 2023, Gates challenged OpenAI to build a model capable of scoring highly on a U.S. high school AP Biology exam. He thought it would take years — but the team pulled it off in just a few months. He called the accomplishment “the most important advance in technology since the graphical user interface,” referring to the 1980s computing breakthrough.
